Climate change prediction: a robust or flawed process?
One of the major concerns today is the rise in global temperatures, which are generally thought to be caused by the release of anthropogenic greenhouse gases.
As a result, a growing proportion of the political agenda is occupied by the challenge of implementing policies and strategies in time to mitigate the possible consequences of global warming.
A key element in assessing climate change is the powerful computer simulations used to demonstrate how complex, interacting forcing agents influence the evolution of the climate system.
Although the models are built around a long-accumulated understanding of the underlying physical processes and dynamics – and are compared with historical and contemporary observations – there are still many aspects that are less well understood.
There is, therefore, a range of views about the reliability of using these models to make credible projections of our future climate.