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The probability distribution of a quantity with given mean and variance

I Lira 2009 Metrologia 46 L27-L28   doi: 10.1088/0026-1394/46/6/L01  Help

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I Lira
Department of Mechanical and Metallurgical Engineering, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Vicuña Mackenna 4860, Santiago, Chile

Abstract. Supplement 1 to the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement states that if a best estimate and associated standard uncertainty are the only information available regarding a certain quantity, then, according to the principle of maximum entropy, a Gaussian probability distribution with support on the real line should be assigned to that quantity. This recommendation holds true if one does not know the range of the possible values of the quantity. However, usually such a range will also be known. It is shown that in this case a Gaussian distribution supported on (−∞, ∞) can be used, but only if the standard uncertainty is sufficiently small. Otherwise, the parameters of the distribution have to be computed numerically.

Print publication: Issue 6 (December 2009)
Received 26 August 2009, in final form 1 October 2009
Published 26 October 2009

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